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Andrey Ermolaev: What should we do in terms of transformative crisis
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Great Transformation First, what is called the crisis in Ukraine has a very distant relationship to the core of everything. This is not just a financial crisis or recession, affecting, and Ukraine. The crisis of global financial capitalism indeed revealed all the thresholds and limits the development of "going age. Therefore, the collapse of financial markets, restructuring the world economy, even the threat of recession and depression globalized production - the most urgent, but not an exhaustive description of the events. All the more obvious collapse of international law, "idle" inefficient international institutions, the collapse of the old geopolitical balance of forces and interests, humanitarian and spiritual decay, including such institutions as the church, etc. We are dealing with a "transformational crisis" (a term the author), which is directly connected with changes of the cycles of capital accumulation. Giovanni Arrigo, with reference to intellectual heritage Braudel, determines the accumulation of 4-cycle - Genoese, Dutch, British, and the ending is now an American. "... Systemic cycles of accumulation - is a process of" commanding heights "of capitalist world economy, or" capitalism at home, on Braudel. " (Arrigo, Giovanni, "the long twentieth century"). The scope and characteristics of these cycles are the subject of debate, so let me certain liberties, and intellectual assumptions. Given that there is always the temptation to ask periodization on the basis of "formal" events once a reservation: political events, acts of individuals, and even such important events as war or economic crises, are not "reference points", but rather - milestones or reperami of a cycle. Thus, the First World War became part of the transformational crisis since the beginning of 1900 until the mid 30 th century 20 and the second world - performed the role of severe separator and a catalyst for new technological revolutions in the American cycle of accumulation. Transformation crisis - is the simultaneous death of the old and the birth of the new world order, the decline of aging and the explosion of a new revolutionary, often nihilistic. Periods of equilibrium systems and transformational crises are accompanied by the current economic crisis, which crowned a period, or are part of the system. The economic crises of cyclical ups and downs of production, also have a different meaning and place in the transformational crises. In the 20 century, it was at least three major economic crisis itself - the Great Depression (1929-1933), the energy crisis of 70's, the financial crisis of capitalism (1996-2009 +). These crises reflect the general problems of the world market economy. There were local stage - the shock the American economy beginning of 20 century and in the 80's, the crisis of post-war European economy, trade war 80's, the economic collapse of the USSR and the CMEA, etc. But if the economic crisis affecting a market segment or to the fate of technological style, the actual transformational crisis leads to a substantial restructuring of the entire system of relations. As a result of the transformational crisis the world is changing institutional (basic institutions - markets, organized societies, regulators relations), economic (shift patterns, technological revolution, the hierarchy of the economy), geopolitical (architecture world, the format of relations), geocultural (sometimes these changes are defined as "civilization "). 2. The outgoing Mir transformation crises early 20 th century, associated with the change of the British series "to" American ", covers the period from the early 20 th century until the mid 1930's, and accompanied by such processes and phenomena like the emergence of the Fed in the U.S., national and socialist revolution, wars, including the first world, the collapse of the old territorial and dynastic empires and the emergence of "Wilson" the format of the national state, the creation of the League of Nations, the completion of the global industrial revolution and as a consequence - the Great Economic Depression 1929-33. Been replaced by the era of industrial capitalism and imperialism, it is time to trade technological imperialism and the "arms race", the formation of such a phenomenon as a global military-industrial complex, the adoption of the dollar as sole reserve currency, international law and international organizations - UN, UNESCO, the collective economic and political-military organization , neo-colonialism and modernization development paradigm, the introduction of projective models of "catching development to backward states, registration dvupolyusnoy geopolitical systems of the world, however, the new American series, covering the period from the mid 30's to late 70's early 80 century, 20 , accompanied by a profound cultural and mental changes. In place of the aging management Moderna, in his subjectivity and personal freedom of the Western man-"Citizens", came at the same time projective and sensual, intuitive Post-Modern, where freedom of the mind into a freedom of will. In place of mind of a man - is the total Golem, dovleyuschy over the living creator. In an era of post-modern man, breaking the previous object and becoming the Creator, himself became a victim of the myth ozhivshego about the future, and its management - are now identified with and to comprehend the action of almost incomprehensible otherness - "the unconscious" ( "unconscious" as "no-mind" ). Man built the worlds, which are dictated to him by his fate - "Communism, National Socialism," "fair democracy," "public welfare" and other mythical constructs dovleyuschego life. "Bipolar Model" world - a crown of geopolitical, economic and mental world "of American-cycle." All the past history and diversity were uzhaty to the development of two alternatives - Empires "good" and "evil", the two Golem-twins are not capable of self without a brother-antipode. But the capital, destroyed the boundary of feudalism, empires and nation states, inevitably destroyed, and the latest "wall." In this sense, the Berlin Wall becomes a kind of esoteric meaning. Death of bipolarity, destroying the capital "without borders", inevitably destroyed and qualitatively change the whole system. Overstress the bipolar world, multiplied by the alignment in the development of industrial raw materials and the periphery, "closed" former monopoly "double". 3. The world in which we live "yesterday" - The Crisis The World In 20 and 21 centuries, to the extent of their transformation crises almost equal with the periods of stable development of the system. In particular, Wallerstein, and other contemporary thinkers, do not exclude that the beginning of a new systemic crisis is a count of the years 1968-1973. Apparently, the more correct to speak about the economic "energy crisis" 1970's and later NT-revolution in the economy as the completion of the whole "American Cycle" and the opening of transformative crisis since the late 70-early 80's. Under the influence of the world's energy crisis after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, leading the world economy took a quick cycle of scientific and technological revolutions (mikrolektronnaya, information, ...). This led to the forced globalization of national and regional markets, a shift from commercial and industrial - to the financial-industrial division of labor with the new financial centers, tools and speculative investment policy, to the emergence of new centers of economic growth (Japan, eastern dragons, China, India, Brazil), and to the actual alignment in the development of old and new growth centers. In such a rapid restructuring of the international economy rapidly losing its former importance of the global military-industrial complex (a key part of "the American cycle"), and new points of global growth were the financial sector and the so-called "new economy", is actively developing new patterns formed on the basis of microelectronic and information STDev. Wallerstein points to the basic economic causes of the crisis - nekulonny over the past 50 years, rising costs for the three basic parameters - compensation (in labor), operating - manufacturing, raw materials, environment, taxation - gosnagruzki burden in terms of growth of social obligations of the State. In these circumstances, the decline rate of return has led to a substantial reduction in capital investment opportunities and to a shortage of free financial resources. On the contrary, the financial instrument has become very attractive for speculation and super. A source of increased profits, and today's new investment has become redeployed through speculative financial instruments profit from future work. Thus, at the very core of the modern global financial capitalism - the attribution of future profits from future employment, and consumption of the profits today. As a result, the globalized world for a decade - from the mid 90's - "ate" his many years of future earnings! But let's return to step back. For the attribution of income from future work and his "present" reinvestment adequate source material and it is a prerequisite, as well as the appropriate tools and mechanisms for their use. First of all - to stimulate extensive development, underreporting the actual cost of labor, the redistribution of already formed part of the cost - assets, income. The first source of accumulation of the population were "laid" in developing countries and "new centers of growth." These accumulations are the result of high growth rates in developing countries against the backdrop of low growth of advanced economies. Given the low level of social expenditure and consumption, a shift in the accumulation and effect, when the aggregate growth of savings in the world has surpassed the planned increase in investment (Alan Greenspan). To overcome the threat of an investment famine that threatens the collapse of the developed economies, have been involved, and new tools - credit and consumer pyramid investment programs newly hedzh investment banks and funds, which have rapidly "step up" this resource. The second became a viable and attractive industrial, infrastructure and resource assets in developing countries. Tool - "loan" financial game players, representing leading world economy, a temporary "increase" the value of the assets of developing countries and their involvement in credit turnover. This operation resulted in the hot finance assets "living economy" ( "real sector", as it is now accepted to speak) with the possibility of speculation and the subsequent redeployment of these assets through a policy of "defoltirovaniya. Fortunately, the global financial capital has a real opportunity to control and plan both the capitalization process, monitoring, evaluation (multiple rating agencies and the formation of views on the global media) and the further redeployment in the new production and geo-economic context. As an example: take a look at the dynamics of revaluation of companies in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other developing countries in the decade preceding the phase of the financial crisis and recession. Rising and falling costs - at times, and in some cases - in dozens of times. And this is not a "vacuum cleaner" of the "new economy" and the company's core and the industry, however, by new instruments of financial capitalism had been newly made to the effect of typical and logical to capitalism, with its uneven development. The stimulus to the development of developing economies, the alignment of development of "old" and "new" the inevitability of a conflict between the model of speculative profits and the consumer society. " New income and living standards were accompanied by increases in production patterns and the overall competitiveness of companies. And overcoming uneven development "blew up" global financial capitalism from the inside. All attempts to preserve the development from outside, to keep quality growth turned new conflicts and non-economic ways to compete. Middle East War and the "managed chaos" in Africa - the bright example. It is no accident, and now a possible war the United States and China, as a result of the current crisis began in the 2007-09 projections, one of the most common view among intellectuals with apokaliptichnymi sentiments. Summarizing, we can assume that the new transformational crisis unfolding in the following order: * The beginning of the 80's - the economic failure of the two "poles", first the Soviet Union and then the U.S. as a result of the ineffectiveness of military competition, after the failed revolutions of NT-70 * formation virtualized "new economy" and the use of raw materials and industrial "trophies" disintegrated socialist camp (1990's); provoked a series of crises of globalized financial markets of individual countries and regions (Indonesia, Malaysia, ...) * defoltirovanie developing countries (Mexico, Russia, Argentina), * the collapse of the new economy and the redistribution of financial resources borrowed on a mortgage, the stock market and the market for interstate borrowing, speculation in commodities; * controlled climax stage - the future collapse of the dollar system and a redistribution of depreciate (in U.S. dollars) of assets of real world economy for the benefit of global financial speculators who control the Fed and the system of national banks, and, as evidenced by recent forecasts of IMF, in 2009, the world waits for completing the acute phase of the crisis - A new global depression. The key issue is completed, the most acute crisis of transformation, is that against the backdrop of the geopolitical transformations of architecture and a key center of economic shocks of economic power - the financial power of the United States and kosmoekonomichesky capital - went on the road to global speculation. Even in the middle of the first decade of 2000's crisis seemed predictable and manageable. Indeed, the coming collapse and change in world order wrote many - ranging from Soros, Rubin, Larusha, Habermas and the Russian Khazinah and our home economists Geetsa, Pakhomov, etc. But the speculative phase, symbolically associated with the decisions of the Fed in 2003 on the "cheaper" dollar , was unexpected for them. Revelation came in autumn 2008 irate critic financial authorities from the German Chancellor Merkel: allowing the largest banks and financial institutions to operate without sufficient control by the state, have been irresponsible for the U.S. to all world markets. It can be assumed that the vast recession in 2008, hit and hurt by developed countries, and particularly strong - for developing countries, which rely on the so-called "old industry" - and required a dangerous turn in the development of the whole transformation crisis. Under the threat of even the economic unity of the leader makroregionalnoy Integration - the EU. Therefore, European leaders have called the perpetrators. Moreover, at the last meeting of the "20" in Berlin in February 2009goda French President Sarkozy stressed the need "to create the foundations of capitalism", including - and its moral dimension. This grave now exchange blows. This is a case of wars, revolutions and crises can be predicted, but it is impossible to predict the specific reasons and motives for the start of those wars, revolutions and crises. Decisions by Alan Greenspan in 2003, and willful failure of such financial giants as Lehman Brothers in 2008 as it was difficult to predict, like the assassination of Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand in the 1914-m. 4. The world in which we are to live (version), Before our eyes, and when we, unfortunately, the passive participation of change of eras in the history and landmarks change in consciousness and culture. Feature out of the "American-cycle: * Acceleration makroregionalnoy integration (EU, NAFTA, Mercosur. APEC, SCO, EurAsEC, ...), * the transition to multi-system. The formation of a new financial system, based on strong regional currencies, which will have the option of standby * strengthening of conflict at regional level for the geo-economic resources (natural resources, competitive assets and their transnationalization, human capital). * Emergence of new patterns of industrial and multicultural capitalism that will differ significantly from the "western capitalism" USA, "social market" Europe and the post-socialist administration and corporate models. "Asian, Latin American and other models based on their social organization to significantly change not only the political but also of familiar economic map of the world. Age of Imperialism and the era of elitism replaces makroregionalnyh imperiumov and global governments. The Times of Moderna and post-modern in its "war of peoples" and "conflict of civilizations" is replaced with new modern and global "fusion" civilization (a term defined by the material), multiculturalism and geocultural design. However, regionalization should not create the illusion of containment. One can not but recall the "unity of diversity." Civilization has become global in trifles. Past civilizations included in the way of a unified world culture (as a nation - have become part of mega-regional companies, despite the predictions of Mr. Huntington). Ethno-culture - remains a thin layer of the tradition to new standards, and media stereotypes. New Moderna human consciousness - a synthesis of practical experience (attitudes, practices) and the pseudo-experience (media-knowledge, pseudo miropostroeniya and teachings, "the ideology of form"). The New Modernist awaiting us further irratsionalizatsiya public conscience and the rule of the "third reality" - media-consciousness, the emergence of a new social space, with its structure and horizontal networking - a cyber-space. The development is linear, therefore, reasonable and long-term national strategy for crisis unlikely. In the second part, read about the coming national defaulted, the threat of turning to the authoritarian regime in Ukraine and around the game of what to do. Topics: Geopolitics
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